Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat, 6:30 p.m. ET

If you didn't know anything that happened in the regular season and just watched the first two games of the series, you would think the Heat were the top seed and not the Bucks. The Heat have looked excellent. They move the ball well, are hitting threes and are playing physical basketball. They look confident, while the Bucks are playing timid. The Bucks haven't been the same team in the bubble. The Bucks lost Game 1 and trailed 38-29 after the first quarter in Game 2. The Bucks shot 7-for-25 from three-point range, while the Heat shot 17-for-45. The Heat are 6-0 ATS in the playoffs. After dropping 40 points in Game 1, Jimmy Butler scored only 13 points in Game 2 and Miami still won due to the contributions of Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Jae Crowder and Bam Adebayo. The Bucks have to win this game, but it won't be easy. This is too many points to be giving the Heat right now. They are 4-1 against the Bucks this season.

PICK: Heat +5

Yesterday: 1-1

Season: 54-45-3