Wager Alarm Best Bets: MLB June 4
Dan Servodidio offers up his best bets for the MLB on June 4.
After yesterday’s small MLB slate and slow sports day, we’re back with a full schedule of MLB night action on this Tuesday, June 4th. There are 15 games on the docket tonight - all getting underway at 7:05 pm ET or later. All lines, spreads and totals referenced here are taken from the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas unless otherwise stated.
Here at Wager Alarm, we will break down a few of the day’s MLB games and matchups to lay some money on as you build your sports betting portfolio. Let’s take a closer look at some teams and matchups you can take advantage of today!
Oakland Athletics (+113) at Los Angeles Angels -- 10:07 pm ET
Despite facing one of the best young pitchers of 2019 on the road, the Athletics are an interesting underdog bet tonight with their own ace on the mound and the Angels possibly weary from their recent travels.
The Angels got a bad beat yesterday when they had to travel to Chicago for a makeup game against the Cubs on their originally scheduled day off. After playing in Seattle on Sunday, flying to Chicago for Monday’s game and then flying back to Los Angeles for tonight’s matchup - the nonstop travel could definitely play a factor in the LA offense, at least, starting slow with sluggish legs. The team only mustered one run against Jon Lester and the Cubs yesterday and will have a tough task again here.
A’s starter Frankie Montas (2.81 ERA) had been having a breakout season before his last start, which resulted in four runs allowed in four innings to this same Los Angeles offense. In his four previous outings, though, Montas gave up just five runs over 26 2/3 innings - plus he limited LA to just one run over six in his first start of the year. The right-hander could easily bounce back tonight when you consider he’s pitched notably better on the road this season (2.25 ERA in six starts) than at home (3.54 ERA in five outings). Furthermore, the A’s are 4-0 in Montas’ last four starts with six days rest - as is the case tonight.
Angels starter Griffin Canning, meanwhile, is no pushover as he’s allowed only two total runs over his last 18 innings and three starts. In his most recent outing last week, he was strong against these A’s hitters when he gave up just one run and three hits over six frames. There could be some regression coming for Canning, though, because his 4.39 FIP is noticeably higher than his current 3.06 ERA.
OVER 7.5 Total Runs -- Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres -- 10:10 pm ET
It’s not often we will suggest taking the over at Petco Park, but this line seems a bit too low and there’s value to be had here.
San Diego’s home park may be pitcher-friendly and Phillies’ starter Jerad Eickhoff could benefit from the change in venue - but we’re betting against that. Eickhoff has allowed at least four runs in each of his past four starts, giving up 10 total homers in 18 1/3 innings (and at least two in each outing). Plus, his 5.05 FIP is nearly a full run more than his 4.18 ERA which suggests some negative regression is still on the way - even if he’s facing the lowly Padres offense. Eickhoff doesn’t have great strikeout stuff and pitches to contact more often than not.
On the other side, San Diego starter Chris Paddack is having a breakout season with a phenomenal 1.42 ERA at home - but there’s some worry surrounding the young flamethrower. Like Eickhoff, Paddack’s notably higher FIP (3.42) than ERA (2.40) presents the expectation that some bad outings could on the way. One of those less-than-stellar performances just came in his most recent start when he allowed four runs over five frames to the Yankees last week. In addition, there’s growing concern over how the Padres will be limiting Paddack moving forward. The youngster is consistently being pulled from games when he gets to the 90 pitch count - and eventually he may be shut down for the season once he reaches an innings-limit.
In last night’s matchup, the Padres went over the current total all by themselves by the sixth inning - and that was with Aaron Nola on the bump for Philly. We could see a repeat rally against Eickhoff tonight.
Cincinnati Reds (-125) at St. Louis Cardinals -- 8:15 pm ET
It’s pretty simple here. We’re going with the clearly better pitcher (Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo) against one that could be sent back to the minors soon (St. Louis’ Genesis Cabrera).
Castillo owns an impressive 2.46 ERA and 5-1 record for the year and he’ll be pitching on an extra day of rest tonight. He’s yet to face the Cardinals this season but he has compiled a 2.70 ERA in his three previous career outings at Busch Stadium. On the other side, Cabrera will start for St. Louis in what could be his final chance to prove his worth in the majors. The youngster has an electric arm and is an intriguing prospect, but he was shelled for five runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Phillies in his MLB debut last week. In the minors this season, Cabrera wasn’t much better - posting a 6.35 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 39 2/3 innings at Triple-A before being called up.
OVER 7 Total Runs -- San Francisco Giants at New York Mets -- 7:10 pm ET
At first glance, you might think it’s crazy to take the over in a pitching matchup of Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard - but both are struggling in 2019 and are by no means the aces they were 2-3 years ago.
Syndergaard owns a 4.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP this season and he’s allowed nine total runs over his last 11 1/3 innings pitched. Although Thor has been better lately after a very cold start, the current over has hit in eight of his last nine outings. Meanwhile, Bumgarner has a 4.01 ERA this year as he’s being rumored as trade bait. The current over has hit in five of his last seven outings. The total of seven just seems so low for how poorly these two pitchers have been this season. Take the over and hope the clocks don’t turn back to 2015.