Wager Alarm NFL Best Bets - Divisional Round
Rob Trayah brings you his Best Bets for this weekend's Divisional Round!
A fun Wildcard Weekend with the road team winning outright three times with the Texans escaping in the second half and overtime over the Bills. Both six seeds go on the road and win outright as the Saints and Patriots go home early. With out official plays, we go 2-2, but had some great plays hitting side and total with the Bills/Texans with the Vikings/Saints hitting unders. Our leans go 6-2 with the Pats/Over not coming close with Tom Brady contemplating his future now.
The divisional round kicks off with the Vikings/Niners as the early game on Saturday with the Titans/Ravens at night. The Chiefs/Texans early on Sunday with the Seahawks/Packers rounding out the weekend. Below, you’ll find the leans and plays for all four games again with the player props article out tomorrow.
Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens (-10, O/U 47)
Lamar Jackson gets his second crack at a playoff win with the upstart Titans coming into Baltimore. Jackson and the Ravens lost last year in the Wild Card game against the Chargers at home and will look to use their bye week to their advantage. Mark Ingram looks like he is a go for the game after pulling his calf in Week 17’s win, meaning the Ravens will be without serious injury concerns. The Titans didn’t have anyone of note get injured in the Wild Card round and will roll into Baltimore with the same squad as last week.
The Titans get their first look at Lamar Jackson this season and that spells doom. The scheme and speed Baltimore offer the first time around has been nothing but trouble for teams. With an extra week off, the Ravens should be flying around here and with weather not a concern until probably later in the game, it should be out of hand by then. The Patriots were unable to get to the Titans’ secondary last week, which shouldn’t matter this week. The Ravens’ defense turned all-pro when Marcus Peters came over from LA and has shut down offenses, especially at home.
Lean: Ravens -10 and the under 47
Play: Tease to Ravens -4 and Under 53
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-10, O/U 51)
The Texans were sloppy again in the first half and came from behind to beat the Bills at home (somehow). Poor game/coach management got them behind and then a lack of game/coach management from Buffalo got the Texans back into the game. Deshaun Watson led the comeback and the Texans defense started to come to live and will be getting Jonathan Joseph back this week against Patrick Mahomes and a possibly hurt Travis Kelce.
Either way, there’s just not enough fire power with the Texans to stay with the Chiefs. Even with their win earlier in the year against KC, Houston played a long, tough battle against the Bills and they can ill afford to get off to a bad start again this week. Chiefs are ready for another long run with a brutal defensive that has been able to shut down the run to the point of actually outgaining the opponent in the past three games in that area.
Lean: Chiefs -10 and Over 51
Play: Chiefs -10
Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers (-7, O/U 44.5)
The Vikings walked into the Super Dome and got a big win in overtime over the Saints and now gets the No. 1 seed with the 49ers with the first game of the weekend. Kirk Cousins was able to make the big plays when they mattered against New Orleans and Dalvin Cook’s return sparked the Vikings to the win. However, the Niners have quite advantageous spot here off the bye, at home, on a short week for the Vikings.
San Francisco’s running game should be able to do what it wants in this game with their defensive line controlling the Vikings. The Vikings struggle on the grass outside, going 1-3 this year while the Niners ended up 5-6-1. Something will give here and given Kyle Shanahan getting two weeks to prepare for an opponent, I’m expecting some new gadgets from San Francisco, which is also getting Kwon Alexander back in the starting lineup.
Lean: Niners -7 and the Under 44.5
Tease: Niners -1 and the Under 50.5
Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers (-4.5, O/U 47)
The Seahawks ended up dealing with Josh McCown for most of the game last week in Philly, leading to an eventual ATS and ML win as they now get to travel to Green Bay and deal with the weather. Aaron Rodgers will lead the Packers into this battle with a talented running game with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Davante Adams has been on a tear lately with seven or more receptions in three straight games and 13 or more targets, turning him into a one-man force.
However, this will the dog to take this week with Seattle seemingly destined for a round 3 with the Niners. Russell Wilson continues to perform at ridiculous levels and the Seahawks just need to oppose the Packers secondary to get a win here. Rodgers can’t take his team to the next level and the fraudulent GB team goes home early.
Lean: Seahawks +4.5 and Under 47
Play: Seahawks +4.5 and ML